Modeling A Smallpox Outbreak

Alecia Brown
Rhiannon Czigan
Janet Garcia
Adam Straubinger

Dr. Peter Salamon, Advisor

Synopsis

After the events of September 11th, the world has grown very aware of the threat of terrorism.  Millions of dollars are being spent around the world to investigate terrorist organizations and to protect citizens from a terrorist attack.  The words 'weapons of mass destruction' have taken on a whole new meaning.  The thought of a nuclear, biological, or chemical attack is almost unimaginable.  This being the case, we must now imagine the unimaginable in order to effectively deal with such scenarios.  Biological agents for instance, are no longer thought of as being safely kept in secure labs.   Potential terrorists are finding ways to obtain samples of such agents, particularly from unstable republics of the former Soviet Union.  One such agent is Smallpox.  Once thought to be eradicated in the 1970's, it has reemerged on the world stage as a serious health threat.  The U.S. has now restarted the Smallpox vaccination program in order to protect the population from a potential epidemic.  Therefore, we decided to model a small-scale outbreak of smallpox in a fixed population.

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Smallpox Progression Diagram

To view the Matlab code, click here

To view and run the Excel version, click here

To download Excel file, click here

To view the PowerPoint presentation, click here

To view the World Health Organization slide set on the diagnosis of smallpox, click here